Grady Sizemore is NOT overrated … and, no, don’t trade him

In reading up on everything Indians recently, I came across this article over on FanFeedr.  Its an opinion piece on the merits of trading Grady Sizemore for Matt Cain.  In fairness to the author, Lewie Pollis, he makes an interesting point and the idea of the trade makes a good amount of sense for both teams.  However, the analysis he made of Grady Sizemore was not something I could sit back and listen to.  He pointed to Grady’s declining batting average and weak arm as reasons why Grady is overrated.

True, Sizemore had only one assist last year, but he was playing hurt.  Additionally, many center fielders are not gifted with great arms.  (Bernie Williams had an excellent career and was considered a very good center fielder, but never exhibited a great arm – in fact, his arm was consistently below average.)  The comparison made to Johnny Damon’s six assists in 2009 is tenuous.  Damon spent all of 2009 in left field and, because he is notorious for having a bad arm, teams are more willing to run on him.  Comparing a left fielder’s assist totals to an injured center fielder’s assist totals for one season is not enough to draw a reasonable conclusion.  I’m not saying Grady doesn’t have a weak arm, but no one’s raving about it.

The most egregious part of the argument is the obvious decline in Sizemore’s batting average since he became a full-time player in 2005.

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Lewie Pollis argues that Sizemore “probably would have hit .248 even without his injuries”.  We’ll never know that for sure, but, based on the data above, I’d argue he’s more likely to hit above .270 than below .250 in 2010.  Because of his injuries, let’s throw out 2009 for a second.  In the four seasons from 2005-2008, his BB:K ratio has increased each season and his OPS and ISO power have remained at a consistent level.  Based on the three-year established pattern of BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play), 2008 seems like an abberation, not a decline.  In fact, with a slightly higher BABIP in 2008, he could have easily hit .280.  If you take seven of his outs and turn them into hits (seven more hits in the same number of at bats), he hits .279 in 2008, not .268.  That’s one more bloop per month dropping in for a base hit instead of being caught by a fielder.  The difference here is miniscule.  Some of this will depend on where he hits in the order, but I don’t see why he can’t hit .290 in 2010 with full health assumed.

I have an alternate trading idea.  With so much depth in outfield prospects, why shouldn’t the Indians try to trade for a very good starting pitcher?  I’m not saying going out to get Roy Halladay is going to make a whole lot of sense.  But instead of trading a known commodity and a cornerstone of the offense (and defense) for a very good starting pitcher, trade some of the excess outfield depth.  The Indians could be ready to compete again as early as 2011 (I’m not saying its likely, but its definitely possible) and trading some of the depth for one player that can be part of the new team nucleus wouldn’t be a bad thing at all.

Tags: Grady, pitching, Sizemore, trade