State of the Indians: Part 3 of 3

Yes, this is the last installment of the “State of the Indians” series.  I realized that I could either bring it to a screeching halt or use it for the rest of the off-season.  I went with the former in hopes that mind can somehow create more catchy titles.

Anyway, where were we?  Ah yes, the pitching staff of our beloved Tribe.  While the free agent market should provide some names to improve the list that’s here, we’ll focus on evaluating what the Tribe have in-house now and explore the possibilities over the coming weeks.  Here’s where we’re at today:

SPs – Fausto Carmona, Aaron Laffey, Justin Masterson, David Huff and Jeremy Sowers (Jake Westbrook and Anthony Reyes are both recovering from surgery and are unlikely to contribute before the All-Star Break at least)
RPs – Kerry Wood, Rafael Perez, Jose Veras, Joe Smith, Jensen Lewis and Tony Sipp

Most of these guys are still under rookie contracts.  Three are eligible for arbitration: Rafael Perez, Jose Veras and Anthony Reyes.  Coming off of TJ and unlikely to make it back in 2010, Reyes will probably get a minimum contract and like it.  Rafael Perez and Jose Veras were relatively underwhelming, although Veras showed some improvement after coming over from the Yankees mid-season.  He could be a solid 6th inning guy if he can develop the consistency to throw strikes.  Veras is nearly brilliant when he’s on and terrible when he’s off.

Perez is a little more baffling.  After an incredible burst onto the scene in 2007, he followed up with a very good 2008.  He spent 2009 on the shuttle from Columbus, most likely hiding arm problems.  Injury seems to be the only logical explanation for the Jeckyl and Hyde performance.  Perhaps it’s because his professional career had been spent switching back and forth between starting and relieving.  In 2006, he started in AA for 67 innings.  Perez then relieved at AAA for 27 innings and also filled the role of reliever for his 12 inning cup of coffee with the big club at the end of the season.  2007 saw him starting at AAA for 46 innings, then relieve for 60 innings with the Indians over 44 appearances.

Here’s where it gets interesting.  In 2008, he only pitched 76 innings.  But it was all out of the bullpen with the Indians over the course of 73 appearances. He was probably up and throwing every other day and its possible his arm wasn’t ready to handle that burden.  Analysis of game log data from 2009 shows that Perez was able to handle back-to-back games fine, but struggled after coming back from one day’s rest.  At 2 or 3 games rest, his BB:K ratio returned and he was a better pitcher.  Food for thought.

The Indians don’t necessarily need more options at starting pitcher, just better ones.  Fausto’s getting more than $5 million in 2010 and will be fortunate to earn half of that.  He hasn’t been the same since throwing 215 innings with the Indians in 2007 and an injury may be lurking here as well.  True, he had hip problems in 2008, but that was supposed to be behind him entering into 2009.  Instead, his control has worsened and he’s lost a little velocity (and control) on that killer sinker.  Seeing as how he only threw 102 combined innings in 2006, its not surprising he has been continually hurt after more than doubling that number the following season.  With Fausto, especially because the Indians have already made an investment here, it may be time to rebuild.  Let him pitch every fifth day, but only throw him for 3 or 4 innings (modified Joba rules, if you will).  Its either that or send him down to AAA where he has little left to prove.  He could have success with limited exposure, particularly if he knows he won’t have to pitch 6+ innings.

The biggest problem facing the Indians in 2010 is that there’s no #1 starter in the group.  Masterson has promise, but didn’t impress after coming over from the Red Sox.  Lefty Aaron Laffey had the lowest ERA of the incumbent staff, but his BB:K ratio of 1 and a WHIP over 1.6 don’t bode well for the future.  By the numbers, Sowers is a Laffey clone, though his K/9 rate is even worse.  Huff is young and over his head.

The tough part will be bringing in help for the rotation in 2010.  There are promising arms in the organization that may not be ready for primetime this coming year, but should definitely be ready for 2011.  Jeanmar Gomez and Hector Rondon are two that immediately come to mind.  Both shined at AA last year and have looked excellent coming up through the system.  Carlos Carrasco did make a few appearances for the Indians after coming over from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee trade, but will need to impress if he wants to stay in Cleveland to start 2010.

The tough part will be bringing in free agents that either can be traded away for lower-level prospects or can be signed to one-year deals so that they don’t block that youngsters on the rise.  Next time we’ll take a look at the players I think Cleveland should be targeting that are on the free agent market.

Tags: free agents, minors, pitching, relievers, starting rotation