Cleveland Indians: 2010 AL Central Champions
November 19th, 2009 | by johnhoyos |What. You think I’m kidding? I’m dead serious. The Indians have the ability to put together a team that can win the AL Central next year. I know, I know, every GM has that power right now because its November, but consider what I’m about to suggest with the mindset of reality. Everything I’m suggesting, while seemingly far-fetched, is based in its ability to be absolutely real. I’m talking about players that are available as free agents and trades for players that are known to be on the block. So as you go on this magical ride through It’ll-Never-Happen Land, consider the potential reality of the scenario and the setting.
To construct a division winning team, you have to consider what else is in the division. What are you up against? In this case, the answer is, “Not much.”
The Tigers, who should have won the division last year, already have $100 million committed for their 2010 payroll and they’re trying desperately to shed some of that. Edwin Jackson is arbitration eligible and Curtis Granderson is rumored to be on the trading block.
The team that actually won the Central, the Twins, are perennial overacheivers (relative to their payroll). They’re already at $62 million and still have to settle on a contract with newly acquired JJ Hardy. They won’t be spending anything in the free agent market and they’re not in a position to take on salary.
The White Sox could be a concern. They’ll have a full year of a healthy Jake Peavy and the overpaid Alex Rios. However, they’re already at $74 million and still have to go to arbitration with three key players: Carlos Quentin, Mark Teahen and Bobby Jenks. That should cost the club another $15-20 million. We’ll say $16 million for argument’s sake and pin their payroll at a cool $90 million. They might have another $5-10 million in them, but given the economy, I’ll guess that they’re pretty much done spending as well.
The Royals are the Royals. They’re at $53 million in committments. They have to settle on a contract for Mike Jacobs or go to arbitration. They might sign Pat Zachary for $2 million to be their 5th starter. We know they’re not going anywhere and so do they.
Of the four, its too early to tell if the Tigers are going to be a threat because it will depend on what players they shed. They’ll still have Verlander and Porcello, so they could be dangerous. The White Sox seem to have a very good 1-2 punch with Peavy and Buehrle. They could be very competitive. Right now they’d be my pick to win the Central.
However…
The Indians are in a very good position. Their payroll committments only total $49 million right now. They’ll have to pay Kelly Shoppach $3 million. Jose Veras and Rafael Perez are both arbitration eligible, but they had such poor seasons last year, it’s hard to imagine they’ll even be offered arbitration. The past two seasons, the Indians have had a payroll around $80 million. $28-35 million is significantly more money to play with than anyone else in the division. Spent properly, a division contender could absolutely be created. Here’s how I would do it.
1. The Big Trade
I know this is going to sound both insane and assinine. I don’t care.
Indians acquire Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells from the Blue Jays for David Huff, Trevor Crowe, Lou Marson and a PTBNL.
The Blue Jays would obviously have to pick up some of Vernon’s ridiculous contract. In my opinion, having the two teams split the contract in half would be appropriate. The Indians would be on the hook for $8 million this year, $13.3 million in 2011 and then $12.3 million each year from 2012-14. Negotiating an extension with Halladay is not going to happen. Let him play out his year in Cleveland and if he likes where the team is going and wants to stay, negotiate a contract. If the Tribe is somehow out of it at the All-Star Break, trade him for a prospect or two.
Why pay Vernon Wells $58 million over 5 years? He’s a very steady player, plays excellent center field defense and will only be 35 by the time the contract is up. Is he a great investment? No, but part of his salary can certainly be justified by getting Roy Halladay at a discounted $15.5 million for 2010. Plus, you’ll have one of the best outfield defenses in the game every day. Move Sizemore over to left where his arm is not nearly as much of an issue or move Choo over to left and let Wells play right field.
The Indians have little salary tied up beyond 2010. Pronk is locked up through 2012. Sizemore and Carmona both have contracts that are up after 2011 (Sizemore has a club option for 2012). The Indians are one of the few teams in baseball that are in a position to both take on part of Vernon Wells’ contract AND give up apporpriate players to wrestle Halladay away from the Jays. Roy Halladay is better than any free agent pitcher available. John Lackey made $10 million last year and is most certainly due for a raise. He’ll probably command a 3-4 year contract in the range of $48-60 million or about $15-16 million a year.
All this adds about $24 million to the payroll for 2010, putting the Indians right around $76 million.
2. The Big Signing
You need a very good bridge to get to Kerry Wood. Chan Ho Park was fantastic out of the bullpen and a key to the Phillies run to the World Series. He made $2.5 million last year. Sign him to a one or two year deal at about $5-6 million per. An alternate option would be the Tigers’ Fernando Rodney. He made $2.7 million last year as the closer that Jim Leyland leaned on a little too much. He could probably be had for similar money. Billy Wagner could be an interesting third option.
3. The Little Signings
Go get Marco Scutaro. He made $1.1 million last year and is a free agent for the first time. Lock him up for 2-3 years at $4-7 million. You need a guy to lead off and you can move Asdrubal Cabrera back over to second base. Alternatively, you can trade Asdrubal for a starting pitcher.
Sign a couple of veterans for little money. Kevin Millar can probably be had on the cheap. He can teach Matt LaPorta the finer points of first base defense and, when you’re facing a lefty, you can have Millar start at first while LaPorta DHs. Grab Mark Loretta as a pinch hitter and someone to spell Valbuena when facing a lefty. Jason McDonald still has an excellent glove. Admittedly, he can’t hit, but beggars can’t be choosers.
The Result
At a payroll of about $85 million, this would be a very competitive team in the AL Central. Look at the lineup you’d be able to put up every day:
- SS Scutaro
- LF Sizemore
- RF Choo
- CF Wells
- DH Hafner
- 1B LaPorta
- 3B Peralta
- C Shoppach
- 2B Cabrera
Ideally, I’d like to see Peralta rebound and become the #2 hitter, but that’s a different discussion. Everyone’s a hitter here. Yes, even Kelly Shoppach.
Did I mention the pitching staff? True, it makes the assumption that Jake Westbrook comes back healthy. Still, the minor league system has a ton of riches that a trade to bring in a starting pitcher is not out of the question. Or maybe one of Jeanmar Gomez or “You don’t mess with the” Yohan Pino breaks with the big club to claim a starting spot.
- Halladay
- Westbrook
- Carmona
- Sowers
- Masterson/Laffey (both posted 125-130 IPs last year and probably aren’t ready for 200 IPs)
Plus a bullpen that features a very good closer in Kerry Wood, Chan Ho Park and Tony Sipp as set-up guys and Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith and one or two others (maybe Jose Veras or the 6th starter) rounding out the back of the pen.
Yes, a lot would need to go right for this to come to complete fruition. Questions about Westbrook’s health and Carmona’s s(t)inker shouldn’t be ignored. Can Jhonny Peralta rebound from a very disappointing year? (I think he can.) Will Asdrubal Cabrera come close to his production from 2009? (Not even close.)
But think about the potential.
This would not be a team that could easily be ignored. You’d have a number of veterans playing in their free agent season and a number of younger players still getting their feet wet. It would be a good mix. And the payroll is left with a lot of flexibility for 2011. Kerry Wood, Jake Westbrook, Halladay and your one-year signings would be off the books. You’d only have about $45 million committed for 2011 and could start a similar process again, filling in the holes that you need with veterans while allowing your younger players to develop. Plus, your bevy of young starting pitchers would not have to be overworked throwing useless innings.
Hey. It might not work. But there’s enough tradeable commodities here that you could bolster the farm system further and bunker in for 2011 if things aren’t going well by June or July.
Honestly. Why should Indians fans have to wait until 2011 for a competitive team when they could come to the park to see one right now?!
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2010 AL Central Champion Cleveland Indians.
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Tags: 2010, free agents, lineup, offense, pitching, rotation
By NoPepperGames on Nov 19, 2009
Question: If you think Lackey could be signed to a multiyear deal for about $15m/year, why in the world would you trade away talent in order to pay Halladay $15m for ONE year, as well as take on the albatross of Vernon Wells for multiple years?
By Ian on Nov 19, 2009
You’re incredibly off-base with your Toronto-related analysis. Roy Halladay is the premiere pitcher this offseason and cannot simply be had by throwing unseasoned peanuts at the Jays’ brass. I love Marson and Crowe is pretty solid, too, but you really think the Tribe could convince the Jays to give up a dollar for three dimes?
Then you go on to suggest that apart from that lunacy, the Jays would also chip in Vernon Wells. I mean, why not? It makes perfect sense to devalue the trade even further…but wait, there’s more! You suggest the Jays would be so thrilled to depart with the two faces of their franchise this decade that they’d be willing to eat half of Big Vern’s contract! Sure, that sounds like a winning model for a team that still fancies itself a contender in 2011-12.
Bzzt. Their payroll dump already happened with Alex Rios. They have a new GM who’s resigned to Vernon Wells’ bloated contract and believes that after his offseason hand surgery, he can return to his power-hitting ways in the middle of the lineup.
But sure, keep on dreaming up ludicrous scenarios. I’m sure you’ll somehow manage to sign Scutaro to a deal before the Jays offer him arbitration (but if you want to sign a fluky utility player and give us two first-round draft picks, I’m all for it), and I know you’ll enjoy the collected works of Kevin Millar, he of the .230 BA and aching knees.
If you’re lucky, the Jays might want to cut ties with Aaron Hill for Asdrubal Cabrera and a four-pack to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame!
By Devin on Nov 19, 2009
Where to begin? I don’t have enough time to pick this entire article apart to the finer details, but I need to at least debunk some of the most outlandish claims you’ve made here.
First of all, let it be known, as it has been stated publicly by the Indians that their salary will be severely diminished from last year’s — probably looking at the $60M range. So, right there, half of the suggested moves could not even be considered.
1. The Big Trade
No. There is no way that package would net us Roy Halladay, let alone Halladay AND Wells… let alone Halladay, Wells, and the Jays eating some of Wells’ contract. Not a chance. Huff has some upside, but is largely untested. They’re talking about Billingsley PLUS OTHERS from the Dodgers for Halladay alone.
But, assuming we get these guys, I have a hard time imagining the Indians moving Grady out of his Gold Glove winning position of CF for a newcomer.
Speaking of position swaps…
Why, after waiting for 2 years for Asdrubal to make the inevitable switch to SS, his natural position (a switch that makes him far more valuable to this team, and arguably the best defender at that position) would we move him back to 2b? Again, if we acquired Scutaro (assuming he gets past the arbitration process with the Jays) I’d put the newcomer at another comfortable position (2b) and leave our current player at his current, natural position.
2. The Big Signing
We don’t need bullpen help. Though I’ve read they’ll sign someone on the cheap for competition in the spring, we already have plenty of young, capable arms back there, and we certainly wouldnt spend $2M+ on a bullpen guy.
3. The Little Signings
Already got into the Marco Scutaro end of this, and though I would love Scutaro to be a UTILITY man for us, he would be a minimal upgrade to the in-house solution of Valbuena/Donald, and I highly doubt they’d start him at EITHER position (SS or 2b) when they could let Valbuena get a full year under his belt.
As for trading Asdrubal, I have no idea why we would do such a thing. He was our most consistent player last year (honorable mention to Choo), plays at a premium position, is still only 23 years old, and is under control through 2013, barring an extension.
Jason (not Mc)Donald is better known for his bat. He was injured this entire year.
I’m hoping you’re not implying that we should get both Loretta and Scutaro. We probably would only need one of them, if that (neither, if Donald has a good offseason and spring).
Millar could work, but at what cost? Probably nothing crippling, but it’s more likely the indians go with Marte, who is still a RH bat and can play both corner positions at about the same level of production, for cheaper.
4. The Result
Why is Cabrera batting ninth? He hit out of the 2-hole nearly the entire year last year and, again, was as productive as anybody on the team. (Actually, he was as productive [.799 OPS] as any SS in the league not named Bartlett [.879] or Jeter [.871])
I’m tired of writing, but you get the point.
By johnhoyos on Nov 19, 2009
For two reasons: 1) Halladay is a significant upgrade over Lackey. 2) You’re not giving up any talent that your farm system can’t immediately replace. The system is overloaded with talent. Give up Crowe, you still have Michael Brantley. Give up Marson, you have Carlos Santana. Give up Huff, you have a bevy of young starting pitching waiting to step in to take his place. Huff was tolerable last year and expendable on a team constructed to win the division.
By johnhoyos on Nov 19, 2009
I’ll admit, I don’t know the Jays the way you do. I operated under the presumption that the Jays wanted nothing to do with Vernon Wells and would be happy to find someone to help them with the obvious mistake the JP Riccardi made. My logic was that the Blue Jays were getting 3 good prospects and out from underneath half of Wells’ contract. In return, they would give up Halladay in his walk year and Wells. I don’t think a Major League team would be willing to pay Vernon Wells anything more than half his current contract.
With Riccardi gone, the Jays need to hit the reset button. They’re still paying BJ Ryan $10 million this year. They have $63 million in payroll commitments before they solve arbitration or contracts with 8 other players under their control. They’re not competing in 2010, especially in the AL East, if they’re trading Halladay away. But beyond 2010, they only have two players under contract (besides arbitration eligible players): Aaron Hill and Vernon Wells. By trading half or Vernon Wells’ salary away, you cut your current contract commitments for the next four years in half. It gives you more flexibility to sign players down the line and create a better team with less payroll, something the Blue Jays have to do.
The information I have on Marco Scutaro says he’s a free agent. 2009 was his last arbitration year.
By johnhoyos on Nov 19, 2009
Ok. I’ll address your points one at a time.
1. I realize the Indians are looking to cut salary. I tried to create a scenario where they could keep their payroll in the same range as the past two seasons when they were at $78 and $81 million respectively. I went with the idea of suspending this reality for the purposes of my suggestion. Clearly the Indians are not going to spend this kind of money this off-season, particularly with such a weak free agent class.
2. Regarding the Halladay/Wells trade, I covered a lot of that in my reply to Ian’s comment. I included moving Vernon Wells as something that would have significant value to the Jays. Neither you nor Ian see it that way. I chose to see it differently. Personally, I don’t think anyone’s going to pay the package the Jays are asking for this off-season for a year of Halladay. Teams are going to hold out because they know the longer they wait, the lower the asking price gets. With many teams trying to slash payroll this off-season, it becomes extremely difficult to find someone to handle a $15.5 million salary in 2010.
3. Grady’s glove and speed are huge assets in CF. Vernon Wells plays an equally good center field. He doesn’t have the range, but a much better arm. Again, you could stick Wells in right and move Choo to left as an alternative.
4. I don’t have a problem leaving Asdrubal at SS and putting Scutaro at 2B.
5. I REALLY disagree with your statement that we don’t need bullpen help. In 2009, Baltimore was the only AL team to have more runs/game scored on their bullpen. They had the fewest number of Holds of any AL team and only the White Sox had a higher percentage of Inherited Runners Scored. While starting pitching is a big concern for the Indians in 2010, the bullpen has to be addressed as well. I’m not saying multiple players need to be signed, but one guy that can make the game a little shorter can’t be a bad thing. Having younger pitchers fill in around those two should build a pretty good bullpen.
6. The little signings – You need a player that can lead off. While Scutaro doesn’t have an extended history of being an every day player, he had 90 walks, 100 runs scored and a .379 OBP. He’s from that Oakland A’s system of taking a walk at all costs and he knows the strike zone very well. He’s not a great player, but someone’s going to pay $2-3 million to see if he can do it again. I’ll get into Asdrubal in another blog. I’ve got too much to say on the subject. As for Millar vs. Marte, the Indians really need to cut ties with Marte and let him try to start over elsewhere. Millar can teach the defense of first base to LaPorta. LaPorta is a natural outfielder and the team will need a veteran hand to help guide a lot of these younger players. Same goes for Loretta with Jason Donald and Luis Valbuena.
7. Cabrera batting 9th? Again, another blog for another time.
Thanks for your comments.
By Chris on Dec 11, 2009
I think you greatly underestimated the sparse offering at SS in free agency this year and the Red Sox inability to have a regular starting SS last year. Scutaro went for way more than you would have offered.
Not to mention if there was some outside chance that we got Halliday for a season, the likely-hood of Carmona having a repeat of his 2007 season is minimal, and Sowers has yet to produce. Westbrook is a model of consistency when not hurt, but he’s consistently average and coming off a full year of rehab, so the White Sox would still have won the arms race.
The key to winning the AL Central for the Tribe this year isn’t in spending on free agents or trading away the future of the Tribe for a year of a great arm, it’s in the coaching and management’s ability to steer the ship right again. If Nunnally can get through to Marte and Hafner at the MLB level, if Belcher can figure out what went wrong with Carmona, Sowers, and Reyes, and if Alomar can mentor Marson and Santana, and if Sizemore can recover from his injury fully, then, and only then will we become competitive. Look for a 2011 / 2012 championship. The team has too much work to do in 2010 before they’ll be competitive.
By johnhoyos on Dec 12, 2009
True, Scutaro went for much more then I predicted. I’ll be the first to admit that this was all pie-in-the-sky thinking. And its always fun to think “what if”. While the free agent market is limited, there are still some possibilities left available. Orlando Hudson comes to mind.
As far as the arms race in the AL Central, I think it would have been a close call. Halladay and (a healthy) Westbrook is perhaps equal to Peavy and Buerhle. Beyond that, it comes down to your 3-5 starters. Perhaps one pitcher would have broken through to step up and be the three.
If we’re going to step away and talk about the Tribe winning the AL Central for real, we agree its not going to happen in 2010. Fwiw, I think Andy Marte needs a change of scenery. He’s had time with Nunnally already and has spent the past few seasons trying to polish the shine into that once-glaring top prospect star. Hafner’s troubles are different, I think. Once the body starts to break down, its extremely difficult to bring it back to previous form. I’m not saying Hafner won’t benefit from some coaching, but health and returning to his “original” form are what he needs more than anything.
Carmona and Reyes are their own mysteries. We may see them revert to form for 2010 and then disappear for another two years – who knows? Sowers, I think, needs time to stay in one role to show what he can truly do. He’ll get that chance in 2010 if he can perform at a consistent level.
Marson and Santana are very interesting because they’re so young. Santana’s stay as a big league catcher will be because of his ability to call a game and play competent ML defense at the position.
I expect Sizemore to recover and return to form this year.
Despite knowing going in that the Indians can’t compete with the ChiSox, there’s still a lot of interesting angles to watch this season as far as who will develop and who will get left behind. Should be fun to watch.