As far as the arms race in the AL Central, I think it would have been a close call. Halladay and (a healthy) Westbrook is perhaps equal to Peavy and Buerhle. Beyond that, it comes down to your 3-5 starters. Perhaps one pitcher would have broken through to step up and be the three.

If we’re going to step away and talk about the Tribe winning the AL Central for real, we agree its not going to happen in 2010. Fwiw, I think Andy Marte needs a change of scenery. He’s had time with Nunnally already and has spent the past few seasons trying to polish the shine into that once-glaring top prospect star. Hafner’s troubles are different, I think. Once the body starts to break down, its extremely difficult to bring it back to previous form. I’m not saying Hafner won’t benefit from some coaching, but health and returning to his “original” form are what he needs more than anything.

Carmona and Reyes are their own mysteries. We may see them revert to form for 2010 and then disappear for another two years – who knows? Sowers, I think, needs time to stay in one role to show what he can truly do. He’ll get that chance in 2010 if he can perform at a consistent level.

Marson and Santana are very interesting because they’re so young. Santana’s stay as a big league catcher will be because of his ability to call a game and play competent ML defense at the position.

I expect Sizemore to recover and return to form this year.

Despite knowing going in that the Indians can’t compete with the ChiSox, there’s still a lot of interesting angles to watch this season as far as who will develop and who will get left behind. Should be fun to watch.

Not to mention if there was some outside chance that we got Halliday for a season, the likely-hood of Carmona having a repeat of his 2007 season is minimal, and Sowers has yet to produce. Westbrook is a model of consistency when not hurt, but he’s consistently average and coming off a full year of rehab, so the White Sox would still have won the arms race.

The key to winning the AL Central for the Tribe this year isn’t in spending on free agents or trading away the future of the Tribe for a year of a great arm, it’s in the coaching and management’s ability to steer the ship right again. If Nunnally can get through to Marte and Hafner at the MLB level, if Belcher can figure out what went wrong with Carmona, Sowers, and Reyes, and if Alomar can mentor Marson and Santana, and if Sizemore can recover from his injury fully, then, and only then will we become competitive. Look for a 2011 / 2012 championship. The team has too much work to do in 2010 before they’ll be competitive.

With Riccardi gone, the Jays need to hit the reset button. They’re still paying BJ Ryan $10 million this year. They have $63 million in payroll commitments before they solve arbitration or contracts with 8 other players under their control. They’re not competing in 2010, especially in the AL East, if they’re trading Halladay away. But beyond 2010, they only have two players under contract (besides arbitration eligible players): Aaron Hill and Vernon Wells. By trading half or Vernon Wells’ salary away, you cut your current contract commitments for the next four years in half. It gives you more flexibility to sign players down the line and create a better team with less payroll, something the Blue Jays have to do.

The information I have on Marco Scutaro says he’s a free agent. 2009 was his last arbitration year.

First of all, let it be known, as it has been stated publicly by the Indians that their salary will be severely diminished from last year’s — probably looking at the $60M range. So, right there, half of the suggested moves could not even be considered.

1. The Big Trade

No. There is no way that package would net us Roy Halladay, let alone Halladay AND Wells… let alone Halladay, Wells, and the Jays eating some of Wells’ contract. Not a chance. Huff has some upside, but is largely untested. They’re talking about Billingsley PLUS OTHERS from the Dodgers for Halladay alone.

But, assuming we get these guys, I have a hard time imagining the Indians moving Grady out of his Gold Glove winning position of CF for a newcomer.

Speaking of position swaps…

Why, after waiting for 2 years for Asdrubal to make the inevitable switch to SS, his natural position (a switch that makes him far more valuable to this team, and arguably the best defender at that position) would we move him back to 2b? Again, if we acquired Scutaro (assuming he gets past the arbitration process with the Jays) I’d put the newcomer at another comfortable position (2b) and leave our current player at his current, natural position.

2. The Big Signing

We don’t need bullpen help. Though I’ve read they’ll sign someone on the cheap for competition in the spring, we already have plenty of young, capable arms back there, and we certainly wouldnt spend $2M+ on a bullpen guy.

3. The Little Signings

Already got into the Marco Scutaro end of this, and though I would love Scutaro to be a UTILITY man for us, he would be a minimal upgrade to the in-house solution of Valbuena/Donald, and I highly doubt they’d start him at EITHER position (SS or 2b) when they could let Valbuena get a full year under his belt.

As for trading Asdrubal, I have no idea why we would do such a thing. He was our most consistent player last year (honorable mention to Choo), plays at a premium position, is still only 23 years old, and is under control through 2013, barring an extension.

Jason (not Mc)Donald is better known for his bat. He was injured this entire year.

I’m hoping you’re not implying that we should get both Loretta and Scutaro. We probably would only need one of them, if that (neither, if Donald has a good offseason and spring).

Millar could work, but at what cost? Probably nothing crippling, but it’s more likely the indians go with Marte, who is still a RH bat and can play both corner positions at about the same level of production, for cheaper.

4. The Result

Why is Cabrera batting ninth? He hit out of the 2-hole nearly the entire year last year and, again, was as productive as anybody on the team. (Actually, he was as productive [.799 OPS] as any SS in the league not named Bartlett [.879] or Jeter [.871])

I’m tired of writing, but you get the point.

Then you go on to suggest that apart from that lunacy, the Jays would also chip in Vernon Wells. I mean, why not? It makes perfect sense to devalue the trade even further…but wait, there’s more! You suggest the Jays would be so thrilled to depart with the two faces of their franchise this decade that they’d be willing to eat half of Big Vern’s contract! Sure, that sounds like a winning model for a team that still fancies itself a contender in 2011-12.

Bzzt. Their payroll dump already happened with Alex Rios. They have a new GM who’s resigned to Vernon Wells’ bloated contract and believes that after his offseason hand surgery, he can return to his power-hitting ways in the middle of the lineup.

But sure, keep on dreaming up ludicrous scenarios. I’m sure you’ll somehow manage to sign Scutaro to a deal before the Jays offer him arbitration (but if you want to sign a fluky utility player and give us two first-round draft picks, I’m all for it), and I know you’ll enjoy the collected works of Kevin Millar, he of the .230 BA and aching knees.

If you’re lucky, the Jays might want to cut ties with Aaron Hill for Asdrubal Cabrera and a four-pack to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame!